Carnarvon Energy UPDATE(CVN)
A Compelling Deep Value Play with Catalysts Brewing
Yes, I know I wrote this one up a year ago, but things have changed to make this a more interesting investment opportunity. I would recommend holding this in an account where you can sit on it for a few years. The ultimate IRR will be attractive, but this isn’t a quick flip.
Summary
Trading at just A$0.11 per share with A$186 million cash (A$.1035) in the bank and A$138 (A$0.077) million in carried (paid for) development expenses, CVN offers investors exposure to Australia's largest undeveloped offshore oil resource while providing significant downside protection.
The company is also planning to return A$0.07 per share by year end due to their development costs being paid for by their existing carry.
The Santos Takeover Game-Changer
The landscape for CVN fundamentally shifted on June 16, 2025, when Santos Limited received an $18.7 billion takeover bid from an ADNOC-led consortium.
This development represents a potential catalyst that could dramatically accelerate the timeline for the Dorado oil field development, transforming what has been a frustrating waiting game for CVN shareholders.
Santos, as the operator of the Dorado field with a 90% interest (CVN holds 10%), has been the bottleneck in development decisions due to a lack of funding.
The consortium, led by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and including Carlyle Group, is offering US$5.76 per Santos share - a 28% premium to the previous closing price.
Critically, ADNOC's XRG division has explicitly stated its intention to "invest in Santos' growth.”
The Asset Quality Story
CVN's crown jewel is its 10% interest in the Dorado and Pavo fields, containing over 200 million barrels (2C) of oil and condensate.
The economics are compelling:
Expected net production of 6,000 barrels per day to CVN
Operating costs between US$5-10 per barrel over the first five years
Simple, cost-effective development in 90-meter water depth tied back to a (refurbished) FPSO
Expected CAPEX to first production under US$200 million net
What makes this particularly attractive is CVN's US$90 million development cost carry, meaning the company's actual net investment could be as low as US$110 million for a project generating 6,000 bopd.
Balance Sheet Fortress with Return of Capital
CVN's balance sheet provides exceptional downside protection. With A$186 million in cash and no debt, the company trades at approximately book cash value while holding world-class energy asset.
Management has demonstrated shareholder-friendly capital allocation, initiating an ATO tax ruling process to enable a potential capital return of up to A$0.07 per share (A$125 million).
This 7-cent distribution represents over 60% of the current share price, providing substantial near-term value realization potential while shareholders wait for Dorado development.
The company has also instituted share buyback provisions to ensure value retention above absolute cash backing.
Exploration Upside: The Ultimate Option Value
Beyond the discovered resources, CVN holds significant acreage in the Bedout Sub-basin with immense exploration potential.
The company has identified over 130 prospects and leads with undrilled potential of 1.6 billion barrels of liquids and 9 Tcf of gas (gross, Pmean, unrisked).
The exploration track record is exceptional:
67% drilling success rate from 6 wells
4 significant discoveries including Dorado and Pavo
Industry-leading finding cost of approximately US$1 per barrel of oil equivalent
Risks
The primary risk remains development delays, as evidenced by Santos' recent decision to defer FEED studies. However, the potential ADNOC takeover directly addresses this concern, as the Abu Dhabi consortium seems committed to accelerating development.
Regulatory approval of the Santos takeover represents another risk, though Australia's need for domestic energy security should support approval.
Conclusion
CVN represents a low downside, high upside investment proposition for patient oilfield investors.
The substantial cash backing provides significant protection, while the Santos takeover catalyst offers the potential to unlock years of trapped value.
With a 7-cent distribution in the pipeline and world-class oil assets in one of Australia's most prospective basins, CVN deserves serious consideration from value-oriented investors seeking asymmetric opportunities in the energy sector.
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