Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Venture7's avatar

None of these liquidations is compelling.

Jarvis Securities:

• What you are suggesting is to buy 18.8p of clean book for 7.25p. The “61% discount to book” is true, but it is the wrong anchor – in this regulated wind-down, book value is not the same thing as realizable equity for shareholders

• In reality, one would be buying here a claim on trapped cash and uncertain receivables inside a regulated wind-down, where the largest liability is a still-evolving redress scheme and the operating cost base continues to erode value while the FCA process runs.

• The redress estimate carries a huge risk. For example, just a 0.5% increase in the interest rate used to calculate redress would increase the provision by £1,489,162, which has an impact of 3.3p/share (see 30 June 2025 audited results). When the stock is around 7.25p, this is not rounding error. This is a thesis-moving number. And so on and so on.

• Probably the most underappreciated risk is the ongoing wind-down burn / cost leakage. Please note that for the six months ended 31 December 2025, Jarvis only reported a positive profit because of £10.817m exceptional proceeds from the business sale. Else the underlying pre-tax result for the half year would be about minus £2.89m, or roughly minus 6.45p/share over six months. So the idea that the shareholders are patiently waiting for a static pile of cash is wrong. They are waiting while a regulated entity continues to consume resources.

• The stock is illiquid and quoted with a very wide spread; e.g. Hargreaves Lansdown showed around 6.75p bid / 7.75p ask.

• Note that Jarvis still intends to seek cancellation of trading on AIM, subject to shareholder approval, once the process gets far enough along. This can leave minority shareholders with worse liquidity and a more awkward path to exit before final distributions.

• S&W Partners LLP were appointed to monitor the objective of an effective and efficient wind-down and to challenge and advise. Not to stand between shareholders and the cash in a constructive, almost protective way.

Otto Energy:

• Your statement that “the company sells at cash” is true but it is analytically imprecise to treat reported cash as excess cash – let us not forget that the company had liabilities of US$8.746m at 31 December 2025.

• The big risk and here are the decommissioning provisions. At 30 June 2025, they were US$6.469m, and management warns there could be significant adjustments as assumptions change. At 31 December 2025, total provisions had risen to US$7.390m.

• Can it be that the market is not mispricing the cash but is rather discounting the possibility that a large part of that cash will be consumed or economically offset by decommissioning obligations, asset deterioration, and time and corporate leakage before shareholders ever receive another meaningful distribution?

STRS:

You are saying that “You are buying at the low end of forecasted liquidation value with the stock at $30.” Yes, the stock is currently $30.35, and the company’s low-end estimate is $29.73. And it is fair to say that the company is unusually explicit that the estimate is based on many judgments. There are just so many risks associated with this “development-asset realization story priced close to management’s downside case” that I just do not see the risk vs. reward here in this messy multi-year liquidation – e.g. the remaining property portfolio is weak and Austin property market is challenging, there is also incentive leakage - disclosed cash severance/pro-rata bonus amounts tied to the liquidation are sizeable: CEO: about $4.97 million, CFO: about $2.33 million, possible time-drag, etc. etc. No reason to underwrite management low-end estimate of the liquidation value and for a special situation with real execution risk there is absolutely no margin of safety here.

Beam Communications:

You are right when you say that “you are essentially paying A$0.045 for whatever the remainco is worth” is mathematically just A$0.185 minus A$0.14. But that does not mean the market is truly valuing the post-return business at only A$3.9 million in a mispriced way.

The statement that “post-distribution market cap of roughly A$3.9 million for a business that just generated $2.0 million in net profit in a single half-year” is weak in the way that you may be too optimistic in treating H1 FY26 profit as a durable run-rate and extrapolating an unusually favorable half-year for this now-smaller hardware business despite management’s warning that H2 core equipment revenue is expected to be considerably lower. So the question even is whether this remaining business should not actually deserve a distressed valuation – because what will be left may be low-quality, lower-earning, ex-growth hardware business with expected lower revenue, no moat and uncertain normalized earnings power.

anon's avatar

despite gains, stratus missed peak austin hype phase by ~2 years.

8 more comments...

No posts

Ready for more?