Northern Dynasty Minerals:

A Trump-Era on America's Critical Mineral Independence

I am hesitating to publish this, but since I am in this play, I have decided to just go ahead and do it.

There is a critical court situation occurring in the next two weeks.

The way I am playing this is by buying a long position and selling a $2 call for November giving me an effective entry of $1 and a 2x upside.

With that said, here is the article:

The intersection of geopolitical necessity, domestic resource security, and extreme valuation dislocations rarely presents itself as clearly as it does today with Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (NYSE: NAK).

Following nearly two decades of regulatory gridlock, the Pebble Project, representing one of the world's largest undeveloped copper resources, finds itself at the epicenter of the Trump administration's aggressive push toward American mineral independence, creating what may be the most compelling asymmetric risk-reward opportunity in the natural resources sector.

The Resource Sovereignty Imperative

The strategic context surrounding Northern Dynasty has fundamentally shifted since Trump's return to the White House. The administration's sweeping executive orders targeting Alaska's mineral development represent more than policy adjustments. They signal a paradigmatic shift toward resource nationalism that directly benefits dormant projects like Pebble.

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum's declaration that the Biden administration prioritized "obstruction over production" while announcing the reversal of drilling bans across 23 million acres of Alaskan wilderness underscores the new administration's commitment to domestic resource development.

The March 2025 Executive Order on "Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production" specifically added copper and gold to the list of critical and strategic minerals, while directing agencies to expedite permitting and approvals. This policy framework directly addresses the strategic vulnerabilities that have emerged as the United States' copper import dependence increased to over 45% today.

Additionally, copper was specifically identified in a Feb 2025 executive order “Addressing The Threat To National Security from Imports of Copper”

“Copper is a critical material essential to the national security, economic strength, and industrial resilience of the United States. Copper, scrap copper, and copper’s derivative products play a vital role in defense applications, infrastructure, and emerging technologies, including clean energy, electric vehicles, and advanced electronics. The United States faces significant vulnerabilities in the copper supply chain, with increasing reliance on foreign sources for mined, smelted, and refined copper.

It is the policy of the United States to ensure a reliable, secure, and resilient domestic copper supply chain. The United States’ increasing dependence on foreign sources of copper, particularly from a concentrated number of supplier nations, along with the risk of foreign market manipulation, necessitate action under section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act to determine whether imports of copper, scrap copper, and copper’s derivative products threaten to impair national security”

The timing of these policy shifts coincides with mounting evidence of global copper shortages beginning in 2025, driven by electrification mandates and infrastructure modernization across developed economies.

Unlike previous commodity cycles driven purely by demand growth, the current shortage is compounded by decades of underinvestment in new mining capacity and increasingly complex geopolitical supply chains.

China's control of the majority of rare earth production and refining capacity has already prompted bipartisan recognition of mineral dependency risks.

Along with Trump’s tariffs now cutting off China’s rare earth from American suppliers, there is a once in a lifetime push that may get this mine finally permitted and on its way to production.

Legal Landscape Evolution and Court Dynamics

The legal framework surrounding Pebble has evolved significantly, with recent court decisions creating both challenges and opportunities for project advancement.

The U.S. Supreme Court's January 2024 dismissal of Alaska's bid to bypass lower courts represents a procedural setback rather than a substantive ruling on project merits.

More importantly, the Army Corps of Engineers' April 2023 remand decision found merit in specific portions of Northern Dynasty's appeal, acknowledging procedural deficiencies in the original permit denial.

The April 2024 Army Corps decision confirming the EPA's Section 404(c) veto as the controlling factor paradoxically strengthens Northern Dynasty's legal position by clearly delineating the regulatory hierarchy.

The company's June 2024 amended complaint targets both the EPA veto and the underlying Army Corps permit denial, arguing that the permit denial conclusions contradicted the findings in the Final Environmental Impact Statement.

This legal strategy positions any Trump administration policy changes to directly impact the project's regulatory status.

The regulatory appeals process has established that the Army Corps' Environmental Impact Statement found Pebble would "not have measurable effects" on fish populations or fisheries in southwest Alaska.

This scientific determination, completed under rigorous federal review standards, provides the technical foundation for any future permit approval. The disconnect between scientific findings and regulatory decisions creates legal vulnerabilities that the Trump administration's pro-development policies may exploit.

Northern Dynasty's legal team has demonstrated persistence and strategic acumen throughout the appeals process.

The company's Request for Appeal documented specific procedural and substantive violations in the permit denial, including inadequate mitigation plan review and unsupported degradation findings. These technical arguments provide multiple avenues for regulatory reversal under a more favorable political environment.

The recent regulatory developments underscore Northern Dynasty's strategic legal positioning and Trump’s new economy, as evidenced by the company's May 2025 consent to an additional 30-day abeyance in its litigation against the EPA and Army Corps of Engineers.

This procedural extension, building on an initial 90-day pause requested by federal defendants, reflects calculated pragmatism from management amid shifting political winds.

The Trump administration's aggressive push to open 13 million acres of Alaska's National Petroleum Reserve (NPR-A) to oil and gas drilling signals a broader policy realignment that may indirectly bolster Northern Dynasty Minerals' prospects for Pebble Project approval.

While the NPR-A rollback specifically targets oil development on the North Slope—a distinct geographical region from Pebble's Bristol Bay location—the regulatory philosophy underpinning these actions creates a favorable political ecosystem for large-scale resource extraction projects statewide.

Valuation Analysis and Asset Quality Assessment

Northern Dynasty's has a weighty current $660 million market capitalization. This seems a bit speculative, but the rewards of this mine are huge.

In total, the Pebble project includes:

· 6.5 billion tonnes in the measured and indicated categories containing 57 billion lb copper, 71 million oz gold, 3.4 billion lb molybdenum, 345 million oz silver, 2.6 million kg of rhenium

· 4.5 billion tonnes in the inferred category, containing 25 billion lb copper, 36 million oz gold, 2.2 billion lb molybdenum, 170 million oz silver and 1.6 million kg of rhenium. Quantities of palladium also occur in the deposit.

At current commodity prices, the proven copper and gold reserves alone carry a gross market value of over four hundred billion dollars.

Below is the latest resource report:

Below are possible returns from the mine:

When you look at the math on the potential of the this company, we are talking about tens of billions of dollars in after tax profits during the life of the mine.

Conclusion and Investment Framework

Northern Dynasty Minerals represents the rare convergence of strategic national importance, extreme valuation dislocation, and favorable political timing that defines generational investment opportunities. The Trump administration's aggressive pursuit of domestic mineral independence, combined with mounting copper supply constraints, creates powerful catalysts for regulatory approval of the Pebble Project.

The risk-reward profile heavily favors upside participation despite substantial execution risks. Current valuation levels incorporate some speculation, while any meaningful regulatory progress could generate 5-20x returns. The $400+ billion gross resource value provides enormous margin of safety even after accounting for development costs, joint venture obligations, and government royalties.

Investors should approach Northern Dynasty as a speculative position sized appropriately for binary outcomes

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