Stock Trade Compilation Cinco
More Dumpster Diving Trades for you to Review
Happy new year! A few housekeeping item first.
I’ll be back with a longer form idea later in January.
And since I had several people ask, I do not accept sponsored posts on this substack.
Although, maybe next year, I might start charging with all proceeds going to charity.
Based on your voting, I will also likely be launching a free Discord group for this group in a few months, but it will be moderated to focus on making money.
I haven’t figured out how to keep bad actors out yet as I don’t have the time to manage it since I am a full-time trader. Maybe requiring an honorarium may work, but TBD.
If you have some ideas around this, drop it in the comments please.
Also, in case it bears repeating, I do have a “normal” stock portfolio and only write about things that interest me here.
I’m not the person who is going to tell you to invest in 10 things and claim I have 400% yearly returns, although I have consistently beat the market on average over the last twenty years.
If you are a full-time trader, controlling position sizing, amputating a leg to save the body, and structured sales is all part of the game.
With that, you know the disclaimers: YMMV and do your own due diligence.
I often make trades with an option component and tight stops, so consider this a starting point for your own research.
Idea 1: MDNA
Company: Medicenna Therapeutics Corp. (TSX: MDNA | OTCQX: MDNAF)
Substack:
Her Write up: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZxEIFp0en1BWktxLjGEM8ixuA0KBb3dl/view
Setup: Medicenna is running the most compelling IL-2 immunotherapy program in oncology. MDNA11 has now demonstrated what IL-2 advocates have been chasing for decades: unprecedented efficacy across multiple solid tumors at doses that don’t cause the toxicity that killed previous IL-2 programs.
The Thesis: The market has completely mispriced the clinical reality. We’re looking at the first therapy with demonstrated proof that it can reverse immune system failure. If MDNA11 shows durable 40%+ response rates in solid tumors and safely moves into earlier disease settings, the addressable market expands to $10+ Billion.
The Risk: Biotech is binary. Clinical trial extensions, dilution, and regulatory questions on external controls are all execution risks. However, the NEO-CYT trial appears designed to address IL-2 skepticism with hard data very soon.
Idea 2: RGL
Company: Regional REIT Limited (LSE: RGL)
Substack:
Setup: Regional REIT trades at a staggering 50% discount to net asset value with a 9.5% dividend yield. The discount has widened as UK REIT sector sentiment cratered on interest rate concerns and perceived structural headwinds to regional commercial property. But sentiment extremes create opportunity. The underlying property portfolio generates stable rental income, and the NAV discount implies the market is pricing in 50% collateral impairment that simply isn’t evident in operating metrics.
The Thesis: NAV discounts of 40-50% in REITs with operational property portfolios and sustainable dividends are rare. They typically reflect temporary sentiment rather than fundamental asset deterioration. If UK REIT sentiment stabilizes and institutional capital recognizes the asset value, RGL could re-rate 50-100%+ while shareholders collect a 9.5% yield in the interim. This is a classic “sell in panic, buy in fear” opportunity.
The Risk: UK commercial property faces genuine headwinds. The dividend sustainability depends on continued rent collection.
Idea 3: VTY
Company: Vistry Group PLC (LSE: VTY)
Substack:
Setup: Vistry is executing a fundamental business model transformation from traditional land-purchase housebuilding to a capital-light “partnerships” model where they work with housing associations and local authorities on pre-sold, affordable housing projects.
The Thesis: Consensus focuses on near-term macro headwinds (interest rates, affordability) while missing the structural business model improvement. The £1B buyback thesis assumes managed execution, but even £500M represents 25% of current market cap. UK housing shortage is structural. Vistry’s government relationships and modular construction capabilities position it as a structural winner in affordable housing buildout.
The Risk: The partnerships model depends on government funding for affordable housing. Budget cuts, planning delays, and macro slowdown could impair the thesis. The traditional business run-off needs to be executed cleanly to monetize the £500M+ value.
Idea 4: GLXZ
Company: Galaxy Gaming, Inc. (OTC: GLXZ)
Substack:
Setup: Galaxy Gaming is trading $2.80 while awaiting completion of Evolution Malta’s $3.20 all-cash acquisition. The merger agreement was extended to July 17, 2026, with Mississippi gaming regulator approval already secured in November 2025. The 14% arbitrage spread reflects standard market skepticism on merger completion timelines and regulatory execution risk. There are only two approvals remaining.
The Thesis: Evolution’s strategic rationale is sound: GLXZ provides immediate US gaming exposure without integration risk (all-cash, no financing condition). Regulatory approvals continue progressing, and execution timelines are increasingly visible
The Risk: Gaming regulatory approval is unpredictable by nature. Deal termination would revert GLXZ to pre-announcement levels (~$1.30), creating significant downside.
Idea 5: CODI
Company: Compass Diversified Holdings (NYSE: CODI)
Substack:
Setup: CODI has become a pure distressed situation following the Lugano Diamonds fraud (inventory overstatement of $375M, revenue down 85%). The company has withdrawn reliance on financials for FY2022-2024, suspended its 20-year common dividend, and relies on lender forbearance during the restatement process. Shares collapsed to $4.80.
The Thesis: Lugano is being deconsolidated effective Q4 2025. Once that happens, investors can finally value the “RemainCo”: eight other subsidiaries (5.11 Tactical, Boa Technology, The Honey Pot Company) that continue generating strong cash flows independently of the fraud. Analysts value RemainCo at $10+ per share, implying 100%+ upside from current levels.
The Risk: This is high-risk/high-reward. With the lender situation and selling off businesses, equity could be worth a lot less than it is currently. This is a literal dumpster fire so do your work before you invest.
Idea 6: QFIN
Company: Qifu Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: QFIN | Hong Kong: 3660.HK)
Substack:
Setup: QFIN is a capital-light credit-tech platform connecting financial institutions with consumers seeking small loans. Recent regulatory tightening forced stricter underwriting, suppressing loan volume growth. However, the company is pivoting toward higher-margin platform revenue and AI-enhanced loan servicing. Delinquency metrics remain manageable and management is gradually shifting away from full-payment-guarantee loans toward capital-efficient facilitation.
The Thesis: The sector-wide fintech panic has created a valuation dislocation. QFIN (and JFIN for that matter, which I also own) trade at <2 P/E, among the cheapest in global fintech, for a company with genuinely improving business fundamentals. China’s fintech regulations are stabilizing. The shift toward non full payment guarantee loans reduces credit risk exposure while maintaining profitability through platform SaaS-like revenue. For options traders, the volatility creates attractive call spread opportunities. The cash generation remains strong, and buybacks are sustainable. Both JFIN and QFIN pay attractive dividends, although QFIN has a more active options market.
The Risk: China regulatory surprise remains always possible. Macroeconomic slowdown pressures loan growth and credit quality.
Idea 7: QURE
Company: uniQure N.V. (NASDAQ: QURE)
Substack: https://triplesinvesting.substack.com/p/uniqure
Setup: uniQure’s AMT-130 Huntington’s gene therapy achieved a 75% slowing of disease progression in the pivotal Phase 1/2 trial, an unprecedented result in neurodegeneration. This is now my second largest position due to my ability to sell some very attractive covered calls with it.
Yes, I know this is a repeat, but QURE, FECCN (Frontera subordinated bonds), and 1SN (First Tin) are my conviction owns for 2026 along with this unnamed oil company
The Thesis: Even if the USA, led by RFK, is stupid, the Europeans will not be. This gene therapy will be approved worldwide.
The Risk: Gene therapy clinical development is capital-intensive and outcomes-dependent. Regulatory pathway changes could extend timelines. The external control data debate may require additional clinical work. However, the risk/reward at current levels appears compelling given the magnitude of potential upside.
Idea 8: CRON
Company: Cronos Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CRON)
Setup: I had previously invested in Cron and sold when the deregulating hype hit its max recently. Now that the sell the news event is done, I am back in it with covered calls. Cron is one of the only investable cannabis companies with a very large cash position and reasonable financials.
The Thesis: Cannabis legalization in the US remains a policy catalyst that could re-rate the entire sector. Cronos’ Canadian profitability demonstrates the business can generate real earnings. Covered call strategies on CRON offer attractive premium income (implied vol remains elevated) while maintaining long-term cannabis legalization exposure.
The Risk: Cannabis regulatory environment remains uncertain. Competition from other producers continues squeezing margins. Macro slowdown could pressurize consumer discretionary spending. However, the earnings inflection is real, and the valuation provides downside support.
Idea 9: VST
Company: Victory Square Technologies Inc. (CSE: VST / OTC: VSQTF)
Substack:
Setup: Victory Square is a listed venture studio/holding company that lets you buy a portfolio of early-stage tech and digital health names with public-market liquidity instead of locking into a 10-year VC. Their main investment is they own 50% of Hydreight, which is worth more than the value of their entire market cap.
The Thesis: If this were a private VC portfolio marketed by a big-brand GP, LPs wouldn’t blink at paying a premium to stated NAV for access to digital health and AI exposure. Public markets, instead, are pricing VST like a busted micro-cap despite a real asset base
The Risk: The portfolio is concentrated (Hydreight dominates the internal NAV math), and a single disappointment there would blow up the sum-of-the-parts story. Treat it as a speculative investment.
Idea 10: HYNE
Company: Hoyne Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: HYNE)
Substack:
Setup: Hoyne Bancorp completed its mutual-to-stock conversion in December 2025 and commenced trading on NASDAQ. The conversion provides the bank with capital to fund growth, acquisitions, and operational leverage. The stock debuted with a 36.4% pop but has since normalized. The bank trades at 0.66x tangible book value, suggesting room for re-rating to 1.0-1.2x book as market recognizes the post-conversion entity.
The Thesis: Mutual conversions create unique optionality around capital deployment. The Liquidation Account established for depositors provides valuation support. At 0.66x tangible book, the market is pricing in permanent impairment when conversion simply provides optionality on future M&A and capital deployment
The Risk: Thrift banks face deposit stability challenges in rising rate environments. The smaller asset base limits acquisition targets and scale opportunities. Interest rate sensitivity affects net interest margin. However, the conversion process typically creates 12-24 months of valuation expansion as the market re-rates the newly-public entity.
Idea 11: HBR
Company: Harbour Energy plc (LSE: HBR.L)
Substack:
Setup: Harbour Energy is a UK-based E&P company operating North Sea and Southeast Asia assets with strong management execution. The company generated ~$1B in free cash flow in 2025 and is deploying proceeds toward dividends, buybacks, and accretive acquisitions.
The Thesis: UK oil majors trading at reasonable valuations with genuine dividend yields are rare. HBR’s production base, proven reserve replacement capability, and demonstrated capital discipline create a durable cash generation machine.
The Risk: Oil price volatility remains the dominant risk. Energy transition pressures limit future investment opportunities. Regulatory changes affecting North Sea operations (windfall taxes, environment rules) could impact profitability. However, the company’s low cost base and diverse geographic footprint provide downside protection.
Idea 12:
Honorable Mentions:
BCHT (now selling at cash settlement value of their legal court case with promising PFAS technology)
AIDX (Healthtech AI Company which looks like it is at a local bottom)
YGR (Cheap Canadian gas company)
If you enjoyed this write-up, please like and restack.
I don’t get paid to do this, so consider that my reward.
Substack seems to throttle free article writers, which makes attracting new readers difficult. I do not want to charge for this substack, but the algorithm may end up requiring it. I am trying to avoid this, so please spread this substack if you can.
Also, if you have other ideas I should write about, my DM’s are always open on substack and Bluesky :)
All writeups are subject to our TOS
What do you thing of the German Bitcoing Group SE? It trades at ca. 0.5 - 0.6x mNAV. The Firm holds over 350m in BTC and has a Mkt Cap of less than 180m. The firm aims at improving its exchange business which creates a free option in case of successful execution with a high margin of safety given from the 3600+ BTC the Firm holds. Going long the company and short BTC (eg. shorting IBIT) creates a compelling situation where you a hedged BTC volatility but with the optionality of an improvement of the operating business which could contribute to reduce the discount.
Am I missing something?
Thank you in advance for your answer
Thoughts on US Based, Newtek?
- 5.12x P/E
- 17% revenue CAGR
- Funding mix shifting to deposits away from private capital → faster margin expansion
- rare counter-cyclical growth
Would love to hear your feedback - thanks